VALUE INVESTING · 价值投资
Understand the business. Then the price.
A working notebook on cash flows, constraints and the assumptions that deserve a second look.
Follow the bottleneck.
The interesting part of an AI spending cycle is not how many companies share the label. It is where spending becomes revenue, where capacity stays scarce, and where cash actually remains after reinvestment.
Cloud spending
Compute & servers
HBM
Packaging & networks
Power & cooling
Research map adapted from the June review. A chain of questions, not a ranking of securities.
From a theme to a testable question.
| Topic | What I examine | Next question |
|---|---|---|
| Google / AI CapEx | Cloud growth, capital spending, cash-flow coverage | Does incremental spending translate into durable earnings? |
| HBM / SK hynix | Revenue, operating profit, CapEx, free cash flow, contracts | Model price, capacity and cycle scenarios; avoid extending peak margins unchanged. |
| Structured products | Weakest underlying, strike, barrier and hedge | Map the full payoff, not just the coupon. |
| Event-driven options | Collar, call and short put on the same time window | Compare at the same maximum loss budget. |
Table adapted from the July 2026 review’s research framework. Position amounts and personal account information omitted.
Inside the notebook.
INDUSTRY NOTES
Follow the bottleneck, not the buzzword.
Tracing AI investment from the data centre to memory, packaging, connections and power.
Read the noteDECISION MAKINGMany tickers. One underlying bet.
A lesson in concentration, product complexity, and why a longer watchlist is not diversification.
Read the note